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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University1.78+8.55vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.06+3.34vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+5.51vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.23+4.23vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.20+0.16vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.63+0.94vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.62-0.15vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.50-0.66vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.71-2.48vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.93-4.01vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.50-3.62vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.67-1.70vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.40-5.09vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80-4.40vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.72-0.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.55Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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5.34Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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8.23University of Vermont2.230.1%1st Place
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5.16Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.94George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.85Dartmouth College2.620.1%1st Place
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7.34Brown University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.52Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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5.99University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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7.38Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.3Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.91Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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9.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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14.38Syracuse University-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Niles | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 4.1% |
| Sam Morrell | 13.0% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Richie Gordon | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 1.5% |
| Cameron Nash | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 1.3% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 14.7% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Noah Simmons | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| Tucker Weed | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Alex Fasolo | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Luke Ingalls | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 23.5% | 2.9% |
| Tucker Hersam | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 0.7% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 2.7% |
| Dane Brazinski | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 6.2% | 83.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.