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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University3.06+4.44vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.71+4.46vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.93+2.80vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+4.56vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.23+3.29vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.40+1.73vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.20-1.95vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.62-1.03vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.63-2.18vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.50-2.59vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80-1.27vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.78-2.00vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.67-2.75vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.50-6.73vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.55-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.46Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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5.8University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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8.29University of Vermont2.230.1%1st Place
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7.73Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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5.05Harvard University3.200.2%1st Place
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6.97Dartmouth College2.620.1%1st Place
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6.82George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.41Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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10.0Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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10.25Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.27Brown University2.500.1%1st Place
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14.23Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Morrell | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Alex Fasolo | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Luke Ingalls | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Richie Gordon | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 1.9% |
| Cameron Nash | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 1.8% |
| Tucker Hersam | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 15.3% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Noah Simmons | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 4.9% |
| Caleb Niles | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 19.0% | 2.9% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 19.2% | 5.4% |
| Tucker Weed | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 0.4% |
| Niall Shannon | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 79.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.