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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.71+5.63vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.06+3.40vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.50+4.39vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.40+3.76vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.62+2.18vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.63+1.00vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.23+1.35vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80+1.87vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13-0.34vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.50-2.45vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.20-5.73vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.36-3.79vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.93-6.77vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.67-3.81vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.55-0.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.63Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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5.4Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.39Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.76Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.18Dartmouth College2.620.1%1st Place
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7.0George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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8.35University of Vermont2.230.1%1st Place
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9.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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8.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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7.55Brown University2.500.1%1st Place
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5.27Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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8.21Northeastern University2.360.0%1st Place
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6.23University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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10.19Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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14.31Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Fasolo | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Sam Morrell | 12.7% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Tucker Hersam | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 1.1% |
| Noah Simmons | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Nash | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 1.6% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 17.9% | 5.2% |
| Richie Gordon | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 1.7% |
| Tucker Weed | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 13.2% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 0.5% |
| Luke Ingalls | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 21.3% | 4.7% |
| Niall Shannon | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 6.3% | 82.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.