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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.62+5.97vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.20+3.03vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.71+3.61vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.06+1.58vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.50+2.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+2.78vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.23+1.33vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.36-0.06vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.93-3.04vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.40-2.11vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.50-3.50vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80-1.96vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.63-5.75vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.67-3.85vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.72-0.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.97Dartmouth College2.620.1%1st Place
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5.03Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.61Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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5.58Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.55Brown University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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8.33University of Vermont2.230.1%1st Place
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7.94Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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5.96University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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7.89Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.5Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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7.25George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.15Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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14.42Syracuse University-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Simmons | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 13.4% | 14.8% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fasolo | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Sam Morrell | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tucker Weed | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Richie Gordon | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 1.6% |
| Cameron Nash | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 1.1% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 1.3% |
| Luke Ingalls | 9.9% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Tucker Hersam | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 0.8% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 21.9% | 2.5% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 21.4% | 4.2% |
| Dane Brazinski | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 85.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.