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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.71+5.56vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.23+6.15vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.93+2.86vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.75+2.47vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.40+2.81vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.20-0.92vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.36+0.81vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.62-0.97vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13-0.40vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.50-2.51vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80-1.22vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.50-4.34vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.63-5.82vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.67-3.88vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.72-0.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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8.15University of Vermont2.230.0%1st Place
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5.86University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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6.47Boston University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.81Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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5.08Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.81Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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7.03Dartmouth College2.620.1%1st Place
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8.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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7.49Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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7.66Brown University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.18George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.12Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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14.4Syracuse University-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Fasolo | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Cameron Nash | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 1.4% |
| Luke Ingalls | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Casey Cabot | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Tucker Hersam | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 13.1% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 0.8% |
| Noah Simmons | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Richie Gordon | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 1.6% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 0.7% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 4.3% |
| Tucker Weed | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 21.1% | 3.8% |
| Dane Brazinski | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 84.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.