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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+4.29vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+6.93vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+6.64vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.53+3.61vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+2.50vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.53+1.63vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+1.22vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.75-1.27vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.14+0.28vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.49+2.12vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.45+4.23vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.43vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-3.96vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.80-3.60vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.56-7.47vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin2.24-3.08vs Predicted
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17Fordham University3.16-7.63vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.89-7.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.29Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.93St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.0%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.0%1st Place
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7.61Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.5Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.63Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.73College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.28Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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12.12U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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15.23Cornell University1.450.0%1st Place
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13.43SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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10.4University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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7.53Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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12.92University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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9.37Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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10.12Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 13.8% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Andy Reiter | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Augie Dale | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Gray Benson | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Tom O'Shea | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 44.0% |
| John Lawless | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 18.6% | 18.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% |
| Romain Screve | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 16.1% | 13.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.