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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+6.86vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.16+7.44vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.46vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.24+1.02vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+4.09vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.69vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+2.40vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.14+1.16vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.89+1.28vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.53-2.03vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.75-4.06vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-0.97vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.49-1.22vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.14-1.14vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.56-7.55vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.56-8.43vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.45-1.68vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin2.24-5.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.86Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.44Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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5.02Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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9.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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8.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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9.16Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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10.28Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.97Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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6.94College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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11.03University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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11.78U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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12.86SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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7.45Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.57Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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15.32Cornell University1.450.0%1st Place
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12.66University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.3% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Liam McCarthy | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Andy Reiter | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Augie Dale | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 5.1% |
| Gray Benson | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 8.4% |
| John Lawless | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 15.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Romain Screve | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Tom O'Shea | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 44.9% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 13.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.