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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+4.27vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.53+5.88vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+6.64vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.11vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.16+4.11vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.72vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.53+0.66vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.56-0.51vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.56-1.52vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.75-2.94vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-1.74vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.49+0.17vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.14-3.89vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.89-4.01vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.80-4.40vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.68vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin2.24-4.03vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.45-2.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.27Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.88Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.0%1st Place
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8.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.11Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.66Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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7.49Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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7.48Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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7.06College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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12.17U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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9.11Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.99Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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10.6University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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13.32SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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12.97University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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15.15Cornell University1.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 14.9% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Andy Reiter | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Romain Screve | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Augie Dale | 9.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Gray Benson | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 9.7% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| John Lawless | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 14.4% |
| Tom O'Shea | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 41.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.