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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+6.96vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.75+5.00vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.56+4.79vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+4.62vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.16+4.10vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.89+4.29vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.53+0.65vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.49+2.87vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.45+5.35vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College3.56-3.28vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.14-2.37vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.04vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.24-1.47vs Predicted
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15Yale University4.24-9.98vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.80-5.22vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-7.68vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-8.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.96Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.0College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.79Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.1Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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10.29Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.65Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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11.87U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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15.35Cornell University1.450.0%1st Place
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7.72Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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9.63Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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13.04SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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12.53University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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5.02Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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10.78University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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9.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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9.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Augie Dale | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Romain Screve | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Andy Reiter | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Gray Benson | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 7.0% |
| Tom O'Shea | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 47.3% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| John Lawless | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 15.3% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 11.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 14.6% | 15.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 4.6% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 1.0% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.