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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+6.17vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.56+5.90vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.53+5.02vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+6.07vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.24+0.16vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.56+1.69vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+2.51vs Predicted
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8Cornell University3.14+1.29vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.53-1.27vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-1.41vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.14-1.39vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-0.79vs Predicted
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13Fordham University3.16-3.82vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.89-3.88vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-5.73vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.49-3.89vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.44-1.50vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin2.24-5.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.17College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.9Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.02Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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10.07St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.0%1st Place
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5.16Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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7.69Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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9.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.0%1st Place
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9.29Cornell University3.140.0%1st Place
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7.73Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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8.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.61Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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11.21University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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9.18Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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10.12Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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12.11U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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15.5SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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12.87University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Romain Screve | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Andy Reiter | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Lewis Cooper | 4.7% | 2.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.8% | 15.8% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Clark Uhl | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 5.7% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Gray Benson | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 9.9% |
| Aidan Molesky | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 13.9% | 50.2% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 14.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.