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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.53+7.03vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+3.28vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.59vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.56+3.61vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.16+4.27vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.53+1.83vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.75-0.10vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.49+3.98vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+1.21vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-0.42vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.56-3.15vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.14-2.22vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.80-2.33vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.14-4.88vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-5.49vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.44-0.56vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin2.24-3.92vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.89-7.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.03Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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5.28Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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8.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.61Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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9.27Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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7.83Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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6.9College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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11.98U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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10.21St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.0%1st Place
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9.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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7.85Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.78Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.67University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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9.12Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.0%1st Place
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15.44SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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13.08University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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10.28Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Williford | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.7% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 1.5% |
| Andy Reiter | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Augie Dale | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Gray Benson | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 9.5% |
| Lewis Cooper | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Romain Screve | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 4.4% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Aidan Molesky | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 48.5% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.