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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+8.49vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.16+7.57vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.56+4.88vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.89+6.27vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.56+2.68vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.14+3.42vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+3.27vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.25vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin2.24+3.98vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.75-2.83vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.53-3.07vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-2.14vs Predicted
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13Yale University4.24-7.90vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University3.53-6.46vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.80-4.24vs Predicted
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16Cornell University3.14-6.52vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.44-1.52vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy2.49-6.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.0%1st Place
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9.57Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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7.88Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.27Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.68Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.42Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.27St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.0%1st Place
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8.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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12.98University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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7.17College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.93Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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5.1Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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7.54Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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10.76University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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9.48Cornell University3.140.0%1st Place
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15.48SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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11.87U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrson Pearce | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Roberto Stevens | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Romain Screve | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Lewis Cooper | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 18.1% | 12.9% |
| Augie Dale | 9.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 5.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.2% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andy Reiter | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 4.4% |
| Clark Uhl | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 13.1% | 50.6% |
| Gray Benson | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.