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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+4.38vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.56+5.84vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+7.52vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+5.19vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.75+1.90vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+4.83vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.56+0.67vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+1.46vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.14+0.42vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.89+0.71vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.24+2.09vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.14-2.29vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.49-1.18vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.53-6.46vs Predicted
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15Fordham University3.16-5.68vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University3.53-8.12vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-8.56vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College1.44-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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7.84Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.0%1st Place
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9.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.0%1st Place
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6.9College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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10.83University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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7.67Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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9.42Tufts University3.140.0%1st Place
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10.71Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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13.09University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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9.71Cornell University3.140.0%1st Place
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11.82U. S. Naval Academy2.490.0%1st Place
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7.54Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.32Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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7.88Georgetown University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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15.3SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 13.1% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Lewis Cooper | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Carrson Pearce | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Augie Dale | 10.4% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Romain Screve | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Jackson McCoy | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.3% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| Clark Uhl | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Gray Benson | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Andy Reiter | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 14.8% | 46.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.