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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+6.51vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+4.76vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.94+5.64vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.30+2.92vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.43+5.47vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.60+3.84vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.07+0.82vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+1.34vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53+1.20vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.37-3.09vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.65-1.13vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.05+0.47vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.13-5.50vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.82-5.38vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-1.89vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.17-4.22vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.20-5.31vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy2.15-6.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.51St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.76Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.64Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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6.92Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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10.47Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.84Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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7.82Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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9.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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10.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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6.91College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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9.87University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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12.47SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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7.5Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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8.62Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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13.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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11.69Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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11.56U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| William Logue | 8.2% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Alden Grimes | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Cole Harris | 8.9% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Phillip Schofield | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Michael Munger | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% |
| Alie Toppa | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 17.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% |
| Luke Welker | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 14.7% | 19.8% |
| Porter Killian | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 12.3% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% |
| Tyler Fleig | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.