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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+5.82vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.37+4.80vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.94+5.67vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.07+3.83vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.20+6.44vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+3.46vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+0.30vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.15+3.64vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.30-2.17vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.13-2.11vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.05+1.34vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.82-2.69vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.60-3.28vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.65-4.61vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53-4.89vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.43-5.33vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.17-5.20vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.82Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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6.8College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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8.67Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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7.83Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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11.44Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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9.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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11.64U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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6.83Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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7.89Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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12.34SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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9.31Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.72Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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9.39University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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10.67Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.8University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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12.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Alie Toppa | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Alden Grimes | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 10.8% |
| Michael Munger | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Fleig | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% |
| Cole Harris | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 15.6% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% |
| Phillip Schofield | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% |
| Porter Killian | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% |
| Luke Welker | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 20.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.