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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+5.81vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.07+6.01vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.94+5.61vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.15+7.55vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+3.89vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.13+1.66vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+6.13vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.60+1.77vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.20+2.58vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-2.48vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.43-0.23vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.65-1.89vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.30-6.16vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53-4.14vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-5.69vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.05-3.82vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.37-10.12vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.17-6.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.81Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.01Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.61Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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11.55U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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8.89Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.66Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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13.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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9.77Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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11.58Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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7.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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10.77Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.11University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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6.84Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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9.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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9.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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12.18SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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6.88College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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11.51University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Alden Grimes | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Tyler Fleig | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 12.1% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Luke Welker | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 15.7% | 21.9% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Phillip Schofield | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% |
| Cole Harris | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% |
| Michael Munger | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 15.5% |
| Alie Toppa | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Porter Killian | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.