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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.82+8.17vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.07+6.02vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.94+5.63vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+2.56vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.15+6.60vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.13+1.64vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.37-0.35vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+5.04vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.43+1.58vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.60+0.12vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-3.57vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-2.19vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.30-6.18vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53-4.13vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin2.65-5.40vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.17-4.20vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.05-4.72vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.20-6.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.17Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.02Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.63Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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6.56Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.6U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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7.64Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.65College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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13.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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10.58Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.12Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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7.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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6.82Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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11.8University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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12.28SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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11.38Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Alden Grimes | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| William Logue | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Fleig | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.7% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Alie Toppa | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Luke Welker | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 22.2% |
| Phillip Schofield | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Michael Munger | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% |
| Cole Harris | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| Porter Killian | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 12.2% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 15.2% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.