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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+5.83vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.45vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.30+4.09vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53+6.04vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+4.30vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.15+5.74vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.94+1.42vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.82+0.89vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.60+0.85vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+3.43vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.13-3.24vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.37-4.98vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin2.65-3.49vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.20-2.83vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.43-4.41vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.05-3.75vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.07-8.92vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.17-6.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.83Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.45St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.09Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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10.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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9.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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11.74U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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8.42Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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8.89Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.85Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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13.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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7.76Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.02College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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9.51University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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11.17Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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10.59Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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12.25SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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8.08Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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11.55University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Cole Harris | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% |
| Michael Munger | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Tyler Fleig | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 11.9% |
| Alden Grimes | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| Luke Welker | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 25.3% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Alie Toppa | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% |
| Phillip Schofield | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.4% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 14.2% |
| Wiley Rogers | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Porter Killian | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.