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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.82+8.10vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.46vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.37+3.83vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.43+6.49vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.17+6.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.15+5.81vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.30-0.04vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.20+3.51vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.94-0.65vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.13-2.08vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.39-4.28vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.07-3.77vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53-2.97vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.65-4.63vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.05-2.88vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-6.49vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.60-7.01vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-4.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.1Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.83College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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10.49Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.55University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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11.81U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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6.96Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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11.51Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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8.35Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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7.92Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.72Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.23Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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9.37University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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12.12SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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9.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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9.99Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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13.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Alie Toppa | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Phillip Schofield | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% |
| Porter Killian | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 12.1% |
| Tyler Fleig | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.9% |
| Cole Harris | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.5% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% |
| Alden Grimes | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| William Logue | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.6% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 13.4% |
| Michael Munger | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.9% |
| Luke Welker | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 20.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.