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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+6.52vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.94+6.57vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.82+6.17vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin2.65+5.52vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.30+1.93vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53+4.18vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.13+0.69vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.37-1.41vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.15+2.77vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.17+1.99vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-1.45vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.39-5.05vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.20-1.60vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.60-4.50vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.07-7.26vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.05-3.82vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.43-6.29vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.57Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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9.17Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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9.52University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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6.93Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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10.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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7.69Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.59College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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11.77U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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11.99University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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9.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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6.95Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.4Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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9.5Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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7.74Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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12.18SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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10.71Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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13.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Alden Grimes | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Cole Harris | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Alie Toppa | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Fleig | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.4% |
| Porter Killian | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 12.3% |
| Michael Munger | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% |
| William Logue | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 14.6% |
| Phillip Schofield | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| Luke Welker | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 20.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.