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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+6.43vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.13+5.71vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.20+8.76vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.17+7.35vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.39+1.51vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.37+0.58vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+2.30vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53+2.03vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.07-1.31vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.94-1.47vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.05+1.15vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.82-2.81vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.30-6.22vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.71-4.96vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.15-3.45vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-2.89vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin2.65-7.29vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.87-5.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.71Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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11.76Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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11.35University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
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6.51Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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6.58College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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9.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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7.69Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.53Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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12.15SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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9.19Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.78Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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9.04Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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11.55U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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13.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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9.71University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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12.58Cornell University1.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Keller | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% |
| Porter Killian | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% |
| William Logue | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Alie Toppa | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Michael Munger | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Alden Grimes | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.4% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 14.5% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Cole Harris | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Matt Cappetta | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Tyler Fleig | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% |
| Luke Welker | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 20.2% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
| Ethan Andersen | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.