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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.30+6.13vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.37+4.73vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.07+4.94vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+2.48vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.20+6.32vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.87+6.75vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53+3.09vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.82+0.72vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin2.65+0.58vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.15+1.81vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-1.55vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.94-3.28vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-5.96vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.71-5.03vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-1.95vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.13-8.37vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.05-4.81vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.17-6.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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6.73College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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7.94Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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6.48Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.32Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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12.75Cornell University1.870.0%1st Place
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10.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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8.72Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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9.58University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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11.81U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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9.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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8.72Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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7.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.97Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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13.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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7.63Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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12.19SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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11.41University of Pennsylvania2.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Harris | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Alie Toppa | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| William Logue | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Keller | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% |
| Ethan Andersen | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 18.7% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Tyler Fleig | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.8% |
| Michael Munger | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
| Alden Grimes | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Matt Cappetta | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Luke Welker | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 19.7% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 12.5% |
| Porter Killian | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.