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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.30+6.43vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.07+6.37vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.37+4.03vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.82+5.06vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+2.47vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53+4.49vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.12+0.95vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.15+3.84vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.39-2.29vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.71-0.14vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.87+2.18vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.94-3.01vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin2.65-3.25vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.05-2.00vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.20-3.26vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-2.57vs Predicted
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17Yale University3.13-8.93vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-10.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.43Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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8.37Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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7.03College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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9.06Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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10.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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7.95University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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11.84U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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6.71Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.86Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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13.18Cornell University1.870.0%1st Place
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8.99Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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9.75University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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12.0SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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11.74Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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13.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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8.07Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Harris | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Wiley Rogers | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Alie Toppa | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.4% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 5.4% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Fleig | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.9% |
| William Logue | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Matt Cappetta | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| Ethan Andersen | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 21.3% |
| Alden Grimes | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 12.5% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.8% |
| Luke Welker | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 22.4% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Jake Vickers | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.