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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.30+6.40vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.20+10.03vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.37+4.07vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.12+3.85vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+8.21vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.07+2.11vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+0.79vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.13-0.13vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.71+0.62vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-2.21vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.87+2.10vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53-1.19vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.39-6.26vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin2.65-4.41vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.05-2.76vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.15-3.96vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.94-8.20vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.82-9.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.4Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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12.03Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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7.07College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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7.85University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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13.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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8.11Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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7.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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7.87Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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9.62Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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7.79St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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13.1Cornell University1.870.0%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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6.74Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.59University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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12.24SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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12.04U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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8.8Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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8.94Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Harris | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Keller | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.7% |
| Alie Toppa | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Luke Welker | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 23.4% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Jake Vickers | 7.1% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Matt Cappetta | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Ethan Andersen | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 20.1% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% |
| William Logue | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 12.2% |
| Tyler Fleig | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 10.7% |
| Alden Grimes | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.