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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+7.07vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+5.02vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.30+4.41vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.71+5.54vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.37+1.92vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.07+2.09vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.94+1.67vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-0.55vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.12-1.17vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.20+2.05vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.87+2.08vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+1.67vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin2.65-3.20vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.53-3.92vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.13-7.17vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.82-6.76vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.15-4.92vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.05-5.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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7.02Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.41Dartmouth College3.300.1%1st Place
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9.54Fordham University2.710.1%1st Place
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6.92College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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8.09Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.67Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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7.45St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.83University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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12.05Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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13.08Cornell University1.870.0%1st Place
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13.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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9.8University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.530.0%1st Place
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7.83Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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9.24Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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12.08U. S. Naval Academy2.150.0%1st Place
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12.17SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| William Logue | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Cole Harris | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Matt Cappetta | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| Alie Toppa | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Alden Grimes | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% |
| Ethan Andersen | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 19.5% |
| Luke Welker | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 28.5% |
| Christian Spencer | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% |
| Andrew Widmeier | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Tyler Fleig | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 10.1% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.