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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+3.92vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.76+2.94vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+2.39vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.44+2.03vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.80-0.10vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.31+0.44vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.69+1.32vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.04-0.96vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia0.98+1.36vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.14-3.11vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.52-2.26vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.35-2.70vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.49-1.22vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.40-0.28vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-0.42-1.13vs Predicted
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16Syracuse University-0.16-2.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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4.94George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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5.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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6.03University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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4.9U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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6.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.310.1%1st Place
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8.32Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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7.04Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Virginia0.980.0%1st Place
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6.89Old Dominion University2.140.1%1st Place
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8.74Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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9.3Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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11.78SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
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13.72SUNY Stony Brook-0.400.0%1st Place
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13.87Drexel University-0.420.0%1st Place
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13.36Syracuse University-0.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby Rizika | 14.1% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Legault | 14.7% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Carter | 12.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 12.2% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Ungar | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Grace Howie | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Katarina Catallo | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 6.5% | 2.4% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Anna Patterson | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 16.1% | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Micayla Beyer | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 17.0% | 23.0% | 30.7% |
| Abigail Proko | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 15.0% | 24.3% | 33.8% |
| Julia Howard-Flanders | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 17.3% | 23.9% | 23.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.