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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.31+5.24vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+3.33vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+1.91vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.14+2.97vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia0.98+5.44vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.35+3.37vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.80-2.06vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.69+0.14vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.44-3.13vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.76-4.97vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.04-3.83vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.52-3.19vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.40+0.78vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.16-0.75vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-0.42-1.13vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.49-4.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.310.1%1st Place
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5.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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4.91Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.97Old Dominion University2.140.1%1st Place
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10.44University of Virginia0.980.0%1st Place
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9.37Christopher Newport University1.350.0%1st Place
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4.94U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
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8.14Georgetown University1.690.0%1st Place
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5.87University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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5.03George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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7.17Fordham University2.040.1%1st Place
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8.81Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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13.78SUNY Stony Brook-0.400.0%1st Place
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13.25Syracuse University-0.160.0%1st Place
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13.87Drexel University-0.420.0%1st Place
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11.88SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Ungar | 6.9% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Carter | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 14.1% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Katarina Catallo | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 7.4% | 1.7% |
| Anna Patterson | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 14.7% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Ava Esquier | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Riley Legault | 13.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Howie | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Micayla Beyer | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 24.5% | 31.5% |
| Julia Howard-Flanders | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 19.5% | 19.4% | 23.3% |
| Abigail Proko | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 23.7% | 34.7% |
| Clara Guarascio | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 16.5% | 17.8% | 15.3% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.