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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.20+4.71vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.30+3.46vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.28+2.54vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.46+1.01vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.60-0.41vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.74+0.97vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.57+0.48vs Predicted
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8Harvard University1.83-1.24vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.57-1.38vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.05+1.13vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.21-2.62vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.60-1.79vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-6.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71Bowdoin College2.200.1%1st Place
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5.46Brown University2.300.1%1st Place
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5.54University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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5.01Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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4.59Boston University2.600.2%1st Place
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6.97University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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7.48Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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6.76Harvard University1.830.1%1st Place
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7.62Tufts University1.570.1%1st Place
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11.13Princeton University0.050.0%1st Place
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8.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.210.0%1st Place
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10.21Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
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6.12Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perham Black | 10.1% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Rachel Foster | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 9.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Walter Henry | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Dochoda | 15.9% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Peter Schneider | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Martin Tipton | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 3.9% |
| Francis Doyle | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| Andrew Savage | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 4.3% |
| Zak Dasaro | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 16.1% | 49.3% |
| Charles Lindsay | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 7.2% |
| Henry Proud | 1.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 24.2% | 26.7% |
| Alexander Bowen | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.