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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.20+4.61vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.57+5.40vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.28+2.42vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.83+2.72vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.30+3.09vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.02+0.06vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.30-1.73vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.46-3.17vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.57-1.47vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-4.16vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.74-4.25vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.05-0.73vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.60-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.61Bowdoin College2.200.1%1st Place
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7.4Tufts University1.570.1%1st Place
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5.42University of Rhode Island2.280.1%1st Place
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6.72Harvard University1.830.1%1st Place
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8.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.300.1%1st Place
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6.06Boston University2.020.1%1st Place
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5.27Brown University2.300.1%1st Place
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4.83Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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7.53Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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5.84Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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6.75University of Vermont1.740.1%1st Place
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11.27Princeton University0.050.0%1st Place
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10.21Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perham Black | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Savage | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 3.5% |
| Michael O'Flaherty | 9.3% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Francis Doyle | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| Meredith Julian | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 5.7% |
| Raymond Groble IV | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Rachel Foster | 12.1% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Walter Henry | 14.2% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Martin Tipton | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 4.0% |
| Alexander Bowen | 10.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Peter Schneider | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Zak Dasaro | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 16.1% | 52.3% |
| Henry Proud | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 22.8% | 25.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.