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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+6.40vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.81+3.03vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.16+4.42vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+1.59vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.74vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.49+3.85vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+1.22vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida2.25+2.67vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.89+3.12vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.96+2.09vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.30-4.25vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-3.15vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14-1.94vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.26+0.02vs Predicted
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15Cornell University3.14-7.86vs Predicted
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16Hampton University2.26-5.18vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.52-3.41vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook1.41-4.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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5.03Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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7.42Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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5.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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6.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.85George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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8.22Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.67University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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12.12Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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12.09Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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6.75U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.85University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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11.06SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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14.02Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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7.14Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.82Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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13.59Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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13.64SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrson Pearce | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 11.7% | 14.9% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Charles Miller | 13.1% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.3% |
| Vir Menon | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 8.6% |
| Parker Loftus | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| John Lawless | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Paul Hart | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 16.8% | 24.9% |
| Clark Uhl | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 15.5% | 19.4% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 20.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.