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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+5.87vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+6.46vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+4.33vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.14+3.13vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida2.25+5.63vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.96+5.92vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.16+0.23vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.81-3.11vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-3.45vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.38vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.80-2.26vs Predicted
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12Hampton University2.26-0.94vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-6.33vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.49-4.52vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.89-2.92vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.26-1.65vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.52-3.46vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook1.41-4.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.46Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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7.13Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.63University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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11.92Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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7.23Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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4.89Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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5.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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11.38SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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8.74University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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11.06Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.67St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.48George Washington University2.490.0%1st Place
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12.08Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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14.35Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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13.54Columbia University1.520.0%1st Place
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13.67SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Carrson Pearce | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Jensen McTighe | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% |
| Vir Menon | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.2% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 12.3% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Derek Poon Tip | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.1% |
| Paul Hart | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 18.3% | 27.0% |
| Liliana Loosbrock | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 19.6% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 19.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.