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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.95vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.14+5.37vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+2.84vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.81+0.94vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+2.06vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.16+1.18vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+1.18vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.39vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.25+1.58vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.89+2.10vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook1.41+2.48vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.42-5.50vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.10vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.96-2.61vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.26-1.11vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-0.23+0.88vs Predicted
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17Hampton University2.26-6.24vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.72-9.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.37Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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5.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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4.94Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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7.18Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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8.18Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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8.39University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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10.58University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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12.1Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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13.48SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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6.5Georgetown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.9SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.39Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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13.89Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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16.88Columbia University-0.230.0%1st Place
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10.76Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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8.61George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 10.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 14.9% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Roberto Stevens | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 3.3% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 15.5% | 23.1% | 7.5% |
| Parker Loftus | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 1.7% |
| Vir Menon | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 7.3% | 2.6% |
| Paul Hart | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 24.0% | 11.0% |
| David Treatman | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 11.9% | 70.6% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.