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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.89+7.35vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.81+3.07vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.16+4.36vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+2.64vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida2.25+5.45vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.14+1.21vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.89+4.86vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.40vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.30-2.46vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.26+4.02vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-5.18vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.72-2.88vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.26-2.60vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.96-2.66vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.03vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-0.23+0.84vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook1.41-3.39vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-11.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.35Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.07Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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7.36Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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6.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.45University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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7.21Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.86Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.4University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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6.54U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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14.02Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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5.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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9.12George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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10.4Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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11.34Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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10.97SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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16.84Columbia University-0.230.0%1st Place
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13.61SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Elkin | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Sean Segerblom | 12.4% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Clark Uhl | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Parker Loftus | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Hart | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 25.9% | 11.5% |
| Charles Miller | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Vir Menon | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% |
| John Lawless | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 1.2% |
| David Treatman | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 12.7% | 69.1% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 20.8% | 10.1% |
| Carrson Pearce | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.