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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.89vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+6.40vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+2.79vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.30+2.55vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.72+3.71vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+2.50vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.81-2.09vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida2.25+2.41vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.14-1.87vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.96+1.78vs Predicted
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11Fordham University3.16-3.71vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.89+0.19vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.26-2.59vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.26-0.36vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.14-4.04vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-0.23+0.86vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook1.41-3.38vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-11.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.4Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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5.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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6.55U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.71George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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8.5University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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4.91Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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10.41University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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7.13Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.78Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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7.29Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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12.19Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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10.41Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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13.64Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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10.96SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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16.86Columbia University-0.230.0%1st Place
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13.62SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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6.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Charles Miller | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 10.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.0% | 15.4% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jensen McTighe | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 0.7% |
| Clark Uhl | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Vir Menon | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 2.6% |
| Roberto Stevens | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Gittens | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 3.8% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 0.9% |
| Paul Hart | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 21.7% | 10.8% |
| John Lawless | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| David Treatman | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 12.5% | 69.3% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 19.7% | 10.3% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.