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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+5.85vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.16+5.34vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+2.78vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+3.05vs Predicted
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5Hampton University2.26+5.42vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.69vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.81-2.10vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida2.25+2.45vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.14-1.89vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.89+2.07vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.80-2.35vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.89-3.53vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14-2.13vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.26-0.34vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook1.41-1.54vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.96-4.27vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.23-0.07vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.72-9.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.85U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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7.34Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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5.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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7.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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10.42Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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6.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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4.9Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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10.45University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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7.11Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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12.07Queen's University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.65University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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8.47Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.87SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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13.66Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
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13.46SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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11.73Christopher Newport University1.960.0%1st Place
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16.93Columbia University-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.58George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Charles Miller | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 0.9% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.1% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Clark Uhl | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Scott Gittens | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 3.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| John Lawless | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 1.4% |
| Paul Hart | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 15.8% | 24.1% | 8.5% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 15.4% | 20.3% | 8.2% |
| Vir Menon | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 2.2% |
| David Treatman | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 9.0% | 73.3% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.