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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.39vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.69+2.46vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.16+6.66vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.05+5.60vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+2.01vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-0.19vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.39-1.79vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.76-0.85vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.89+1.29vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.77-2.56vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-0.15vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.33+0.50vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.45-1.36vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.79-0.38vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.60-0.64vs Predicted
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16Hampton University1.08-2.90vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania3.12-10.75vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.64-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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4.46Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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9.66Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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9.6SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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7.01Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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5.81St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.21Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.15George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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10.29Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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7.44Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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12.5Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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11.64Queen's University1.450.0%1st Place
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13.62SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
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14.36Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
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13.1Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.25University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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16.65Columbia University-0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 14.1% | 14.8% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 2.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.8% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 12.5% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Riley Legault | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Gabby Rizika | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Zane Tinnell | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 3.5% |
| William Bruce | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 2.3% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 18.1% | 9.4% |
| Henry Proud | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 16.6% | 24.2% | 12.2% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 6.3% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Navarro Goldaraz | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 13.9% | 64.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.