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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+3.52vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.82+5.22vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.76+4.38vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+1.09vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.39+0.16vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.20+3.27vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.16+2.36vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.05+1.67vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.12-3.03vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-4.08vs Predicted
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11Hampton University1.08+2.12vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-1.03vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.33-0.91vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.45-2.44vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.31-6.22vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.60-1.60vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.64-0.21vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook0.79-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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7.22Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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7.38George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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5.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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5.16Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.27Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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9.36Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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9.67SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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5.97University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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5.92St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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13.12Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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12.09Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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11.56Queen's University1.450.0%1st Place
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8.78Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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14.4Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
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16.79Columbia University-0.640.0%1st Place
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13.71SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 16.3% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Riley Legault | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 13.4% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 14.1% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 11.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 6.2% |
| Luke Welker | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 1.0% |
| Zane Tinnell | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 2.8% |
| William Bruce | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 2.0% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Henry Proud | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 24.7% | 13.1% |
| Mateo Navarro Goldaraz | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 65.2% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 15.8% | 18.7% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.