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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+3.49vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+3.34vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.16+6.63vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.33+8.08vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.14vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.82+1.04vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+3.66vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.76-0.86vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-3.32vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.60+4.50vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.05-1.06vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania3.12-5.70vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.20-3.88vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.08-1.27vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.31-6.26vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.45-4.09vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.64-0.20vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook0.79-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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5.34Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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12.08Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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5.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.04Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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10.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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7.14George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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5.68St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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14.5Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
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9.94SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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6.3University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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9.12Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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12.73Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.74Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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11.91Queen's University1.450.0%1st Place
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16.8Columbia University-0.640.0%1st Place
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13.75SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 15.9% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Zane Tinnell | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% |
| Hector Guzman | 14.7% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Riley Legault | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.7% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Proud | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 26.4% | 13.5% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 4.3% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| William Bruce | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 2.5% |
| Mateo Navarro Goldaraz | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 14.4% | 64.9% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 18.0% | 18.9% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.