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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.33vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.20+7.50vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+2.85vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.69+0.27vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.39+0.19vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.08+7.04vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.82-0.03vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.31+0.74vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.05+0.66vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.45+1.98vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.12-4.88vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.33+0.53vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-2.42vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.60+0.17vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.76-7.87vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.16-6.55vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.64-0.20vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook0.79-4.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.5Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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5.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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4.27Georgetown University3.690.2%1st Place
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5.19Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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13.04Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.97Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.74Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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9.66SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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11.98Queen's University1.450.0%1st Place
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6.12University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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12.53Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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10.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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14.17Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
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7.13George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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9.45Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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16.8Columbia University-0.640.0%1st Place
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13.69SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 11.7% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 17.5% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 14.0% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 12.9% | 6.3% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| William Bruce | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Zane Tinnell | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 3.6% |
| Luke Welker | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Henry Proud | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 23.7% | 11.8% |
| Riley Legault | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Mateo Navarro Goldaraz | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 14.0% | 65.2% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 15.7% | 19.3% | 8.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.