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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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13.69+3.61vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+3.48vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+2.42vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.60+3.85vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.76+2.31vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-0.11vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania3.12-0.83vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.82-0.91vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.33+3.32vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.08+3.26vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-3.49vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.89-1.27vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.05-3.26vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.45-2.38vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.79-1.06vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-5.09vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.60-2.50vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.64-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.613.690.2%1st Place
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5.48Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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7.85Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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7.31George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.17University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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7.09Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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12.32Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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13.26Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.51Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.73Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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9.74SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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11.62Queen's University1.450.0%1st Place
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13.94SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
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10.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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14.5Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
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16.64Columbia University-0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 16.0% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Riley Legault | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Zane Tinnell | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 6.1% |
| Gabby Rizika | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| William Bruce | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 19.4% | 9.5% |
| Luke Welker | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Henry Proud | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 25.8% | 13.6% |
| Mateo Navarro Goldaraz | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 63.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.