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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+4.50vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.12+4.39vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+3.00vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+1.28vs Predicted
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53.69-0.58vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.60+1.96vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.89+3.47vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.05+1.77vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.82-1.88vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.33+2.48vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.76-3.52vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.45+0.21vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.77-5.79vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.79-0.29vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-4.19vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.60-1.55vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.64-0.19vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.08-5.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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6.39University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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6.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.28Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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4.423.690.2%1st Place
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7.96Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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10.47Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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9.77SUNY Maritime College2.050.0%1st Place
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7.12Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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12.48Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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7.48George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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12.21Queen's University1.450.0%1st Place
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7.21Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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13.71SUNY Stony Brook0.790.0%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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14.45Washington College0.600.0%1st Place
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16.81Columbia University-0.640.0%1st Place
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12.95Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 12.5% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 18.3% | 17.0% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Juan Lejarraga | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Zane Tinnell | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 3.6% |
| Riley Legault | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Bruce | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% |
| Gabby Rizika | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Gilmore III | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 19.4% | 7.8% |
| Luke Welker | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Henry Proud | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 15.8% | 24.5% | 13.5% |
| Mateo Navarro Goldaraz | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 13.5% | 65.4% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 15.9% | 12.2% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.