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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+5.50vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.06+5.44vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.49+3.02vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.15+7.03vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.88+3.26vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.42+4.01vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.15-0.67vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.49+0.51vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.77-4.93vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.33-0.63vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University1.63-2.82vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.35-6.44vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.34-3.81vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.17-8.00vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University1.15-4.96vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy1.29-6.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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7.44Georgetown University2.060.1%1st Place
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6.02U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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11.03St. Mary's College of Maryland1.150.0%1st Place
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8.26George Washington University1.880.1%1st Place
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10.01Georgetown University1.420.0%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Naval Academy2.150.1%1st Place
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9.51Old Dominion University1.490.0%1st Place
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5.07George Washington University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.37Old Dominion University1.330.0%1st Place
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9.18Georgetown University1.630.1%1st Place
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6.56George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.19George Washington University1.340.0%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Naval Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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11.04Georgetown University1.150.0%1st Place
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10.49U. S. Naval Academy1.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Paper | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Thomas McCann | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Gray Benson | 11.2% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Hunter Cutting | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 18.6% |
| Samuel Mandell | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Alexander Mazzeo | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 11.1% |
| Tyler Fleig | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| George White | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% |
| Adam DiDomizio | 14.8% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Colleen Baumann | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| John Patrick Panarella | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| Andrew Bennett | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| John DeRuff | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% |
| Louis Margay | 8.2% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Nathaniel Winters | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 15.6% |
| Jack Carminati | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 12.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.