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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.77+3.94vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.88+6.09vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+3.59vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.49+5.88vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.35+1.47vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.06+1.63vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.17+0.24vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.15+2.83vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.34+1.14vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.15-2.76vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.63-1.82vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.49-5.94vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy1.29-2.61vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University1.42-4.11vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.33-5.58vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland1.15-5.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.94George Washington University2.770.2%1st Place
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8.09George Washington University1.880.1%1st Place
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6.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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9.88Old Dominion University1.490.0%1st Place
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6.47George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.63Georgetown University2.060.1%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Naval Academy2.170.1%1st Place
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10.83Georgetown University1.150.0%1st Place
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10.14George Washington University1.340.0%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Naval Academy2.150.1%1st Place
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9.18Georgetown University1.630.0%1st Place
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6.06U. S. Naval Academy2.490.1%1st Place
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10.39U. S. Naval Academy1.290.0%1st Place
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9.89Georgetown University1.420.0%1st Place
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10.42Old Dominion University1.330.0%1st Place
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11.03St. Mary's College of Maryland1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam DiDomizio | 16.0% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Mandell | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% |
| Joshua Paper | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| George White | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% |
| Andrew Bennett | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Thomas McCann | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Louis Margay | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Nathaniel Winters | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 15.4% |
| John DeRuff | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.0% |
| Tyler Fleig | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| John Patrick Panarella | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| Gray Benson | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Jack Carminati | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.9% |
| Alexander Mazzeo | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% |
| Colleen Baumann | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| Hunter Cutting | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 16.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.