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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.17+1.85vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.81+3.72vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+0.58vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+2.24vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.66+1.10vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz1.15+1.38vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii2.28-2.51vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.15+1.48vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.75-3.31vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.80-1.91vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.15-1.52vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.92-3.98vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.29-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.85Stanford University3.170.3%1st Place
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5.72California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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3.58University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.2%1st Place
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6.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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6.1University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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7.38University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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4.49University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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9.48California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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5.69University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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8.09University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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9.48California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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8.02University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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10.38San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Rosenberg | 29.7% | 23.7% | 16.4% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 20.1% | 19.0% | 15.5% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 10.6% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 13.9% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 23.7% | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 6.5% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 23.7% | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 19.2% | 48.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.