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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.17+1.80vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+1.56vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.92+4.82vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.89+1.41vs Predicted
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5California State University Channel Islands0.15+4.50vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.09vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-1.47vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.75-2.33vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.66-3.18vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz1.15-2.80vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.80-2.74vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.15-2.50vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.29-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.8Stanford University3.170.3%1st Place
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3.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.2%1st Place
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7.82University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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5.41University of Hawaii1.890.1%1st Place
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9.5California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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6.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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5.53California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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5.67University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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5.82University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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7.2University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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8.26University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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9.5California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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10.35San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Rosenberg | 29.4% | 22.8% | 18.9% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 20.2% | 18.0% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Mathew Butler | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 21.7% | 28.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 16.6% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 21.7% | 28.4% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 7.0% | 11.4% | 19.6% | 46.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.