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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.89+4.46vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.17+0.74vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.81+2.60vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.75+1.76vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+1.09vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz1.15+1.29vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-3.54vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.80+0.04vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.66-3.18vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.15-0.54vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.92-3.07vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.15-2.54vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.29-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.46University of Hawaii1.890.1%1st Place
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2.74Stanford University3.170.3%1st Place
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5.6California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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5.76University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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6.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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7.29University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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3.46University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.2%1st Place
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8.04University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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5.82University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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9.46California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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7.93University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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9.46California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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10.35San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Butler | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 30.5% | 24.8% | 16.6% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 8.1% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 5.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 22.9% | 18.6% | 16.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 16.9% | 15.3% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 23.0% | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 23.0% | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 20.1% | 47.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.