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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.28+3.49vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+2.11vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+0.99vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.84+4.41vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia0.55+6.73vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.84-0.34vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.97+0.98vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.92-2.57vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.33-4.64vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.85-2.46vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.98-1.23vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland2.09-5.10vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.66-2.38vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.13-2.39vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.20-3.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49SUNY Maritime College3.280.2%1st Place
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4.11Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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8.41Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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11.73University of Virginia0.550.0%1st Place
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5.66George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.98Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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5.43Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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4.36U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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8.54Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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10.77Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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7.9University of Maryland2.090.0%1st Place
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11.62William and Mary0.660.0%1st Place
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12.61Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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12.41Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Hartranft | 15.3% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Johns | 16.9% | 17.9% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 17.9% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Linda Codega | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 16.3% | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| William Ricketson | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Zach Runci | 9.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 14.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 7.8% |
| Russell Cramer | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Bryan | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 17.5% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 22.6% | 28.8% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 19.5% | 28.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.