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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+3.17vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+1.90vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.92+2.27vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.84+1.61vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.33-0.57vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia0.55+5.74vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.97+1.04vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland2.09-1.23vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University0.98+0.74vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.28-6.44vs Predicted
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12Hampton University1.84-3.55vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.85-4.38vs Predicted
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14Drexel University0.20-1.37vs Predicted
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15William and Mary0.66-3.53vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-3.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.17Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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3.9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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5.27Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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5.61George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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4.43U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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11.74University of Virginia0.550.0%1st Place
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8.04Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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7.77University of Maryland2.090.0%1st Place
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10.74Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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4.56SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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8.45Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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8.62Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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12.63Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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11.47William and Mary0.660.0%1st Place
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12.6Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Johns | 17.0% | 16.8% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 18.0% | 18.5% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 9.9% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Ricketson | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 14.7% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Linda Codega | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 19.2% | 15.7% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Russell Cramer | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 15.9% | 13.0% | 5.4% |
| Randall Hartranft | 13.7% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 21.1% | 31.1% |
| Andrew Bryan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 16.1% | 16.5% | 13.6% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 15.0% | 20.1% | 31.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.