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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.84+4.52vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+1.93vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+1.19vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.92+1.38vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.33-0.56vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.84+2.43vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.28-2.54vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia0.55+2.79vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University0.98+0.75vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland2.09-3.21vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.85-3.61vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.66-1.29vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.97-5.82vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.20-2.49vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-3.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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3.93St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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4.19Georgetown University3.390.2%1st Place
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5.38Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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4.44U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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8.43Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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4.46SUNY Maritime College3.280.2%1st Place
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11.79University of Virginia0.550.0%1st Place
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10.75Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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7.79University of Maryland2.090.0%1st Place
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8.39Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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11.71William and Mary0.660.0%1st Place
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8.18Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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12.51Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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12.53Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Ricketson | 10.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 17.8% | 17.7% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Johns | 15.2% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 13.6% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 15.5% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Linda Codega | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 16.6% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 5.6% |
| Russell Cramer | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Andrew Bryan | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 17.1% | 18.3% | 14.5% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 21.1% | 27.9% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 19.5% | 31.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.