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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+3.30vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.92+3.84vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+1.65vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.28+0.98vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.33-0.07vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.84+0.20vs Predicted
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7University of Maryland2.09+1.34vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48-3.48vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.97-0.36vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.85-0.88vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.66-0.01vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.84-3.73vs Predicted
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14Drexel University0.20-1.01vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University0.98-3.76vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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5.84Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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4.65Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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4.98SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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4.93U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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6.2George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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8.34University of Maryland2.090.0%1st Place
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4.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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8.64Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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9.12Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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11.99William and Mary0.660.0%1st Place
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9.27Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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12.99Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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11.24Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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12.98Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 16.2% | 16.3% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 7.7% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Johns | 14.8% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 12.8% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 12.8% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Ricketson | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Russell Cramer | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Mayumi Roller | 14.3% | 15.3% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| John O'Riordan | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Andrew Bryan | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 16.8% | 22.1% | 16.5% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 24.7% | 34.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 18.5% | 16.8% | 8.4% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 22.2% | 37.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.